In this Motley Fool Money podcast, host Chris Hill and chief analysts Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, and Ron Gross accept a lot to tackle: They altercate a Canadian cannabis aggregation bearing big allotment for shareholders, new articles from Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), a big accretion by Medtronic (NYSE:MDT), a hot division at Olive Garden for Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), and an ESPN-related addition for Disney (NYSE:DIS). And finally, as always, the analysts will acknowledgment the question: What banal is on your alarm this week?
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A abounding archetype follows the video.
This video was recorded on Sept. 21, 2018.
Chris Hill: It’s the Motley Fool Money radio show! I’m Chris Hill. Joining me in flat this week: chief analysts Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, and Ron Gross. Acceptable to see you as always, gentlemen! We’ve got the latest annual from Bank Street. Bestselling columnist Ashlee Vance is our guest. And as always, we’ll accord you an central attending at the stocks on our radar.
But we activate this anniversary with Tilray (NASDAQ:TLRY), the acclaimed Canadian cannabis aggregation that I’ve never heard of until this week. It started the year with a bazaar cap of about $2 billion. Jason, it’s activity to abutting this anniversary with a bazaar cap of aloof arctic of $12 billion. I’m acclimated to seeing this affectionate of exponential acceleration with technology companies. What is activity on with this cannabis stock?
Jason Moser: I’m not alike acclimated to seeing that affectionate of a acceleration with tech companies, at atomic not in the advance of a week. I anticipate that’s what we’re seeing, added or less. Advancing from me, who supports amends — I am for it, OK — you charge to abstain this affair like plague. I mean, this is mania. That’s the alone absolute apple I can action that fits the cast in. I anticipate a lot of it is based on speculation, perhaps, what will be one day actuality domestically with Tilray. It is a Canadian company. I anticipate a lot of bodies are cerebration that what is activity on now with Canada will one day be that aforementioned way here. But this is aloof a abandoned aggregate of speculation.
In Tilray’s case, it’s a actual low float on the accessible market. Of the 93.1 actor shares outstanding, alone 19.1% of them barter on the accessible market. That agency it’s alone about 17.8 actor shares. Actual low float agency aerial volatility, which is what we’re seeing. When I allocution about aerial volatility, aloof go aback to September 19th. The banal hit a aerial of $300 and a low of $151, all in the aforementioned day! On the 20th aerial of $244, low $158, all in the aforementioned day. That is not normal. We don’t see that.
That’s why we acquaint bodies with actuality like this, this business and the stock, it’s not based on annihilation fundamental. That’s why you accept to beacon ablaze of this thing. Wait until we accept a bigger abstraction of how amends is activity to booty anatomy actuality domestically, afore you alpha acceding any crazy bets.
Matt Argersinger: Speaking of fundamentals, Chris, I anticipate you mentioned a $12 billion bazaar cap, if I heard correctly. Well, this aggregation in the aftermost 12 months did $28 actor in revenue.
Ron Gross: That seems reasonable.
Argersinger: Even if the day it all becomes acknowledged in Canada — and, as Jason mentioned, maybe amends actuality in the U.S. — alike if that acquirement went up 10X in the abutting year, it would still be a antic valuation. I anticipate this ultimately is, aloof as Jason declared it, a absolute mania. This is, for me, a buy the rumor, advertise the annual affectionate of thing. In added words, I anticipate these companies are still activity to be rallying. It’s not aloof Tilray, you accept companies like Canopy Growth (NYSE:CGC), Aurora Cannabis. The day it goes acknowledged in Canada, I feel like that’s the day these stocks apparently about-face over.
Moser: Just ask yourself, what would be their aggressive advantage? What they do is abound and administer marijuana. I knew guys who did that in college, and they weren’t active $13 billion businesses.
Hill: [laughs] It didn’t accept all the staging and eyes of Apple’s (NASDAQ:AAPL) contempo event, but this week, Amazon unveiled added than a dozen new accouterments products, including a bake oven that works with its articulation assistant, Alexa. Ron, I’m not alike abiding breadth to alpha with this.
Gross: I appetite it all. [laughs] I appetite every distinct one of them. It’s actual absorbing to me, whether it’s the Echo Auto, or the Microwave, as you say, or the Clock. Who doesn’t charge an Echo Clock?
I anticipate what’s accident here, in all seriousness, is that we see Amazon creating an ecosystem. It’s what we’ve time and time afresh appear about with annual to Apple, and what’s been so absorbing for Apple. They appetite to be in your home, your car, your business, and they appetite it all commutual through the Alexa Echo system. I absolutely anticipate it makes acceptable sense. I anticipate they’ve got a nice arch alpha on the association that are aggressive adjoin them.
Moser: I anticipate it’s amazing to anticipate about, bristles years ago, we absolutely would accept all aloof accustomed Apple the first-place accolade in this race. Fast advanced to now, it seems like Siri can’t get out of her own way, and Amazon has aloof abounding the bazaar with Echo-enabled accessories everywhere. It’s appealing amazing.
Hill: Also, Matty, we’ve talked for years about the acute home. You attending at Alphabet, their accretion of Nest. Breadth is Google and all of this? What do you accept the acknowledgment was at Google headquarters? Again, this was a actual quiet event, in some ways.
Argersinger: Yes. I anticipate it speaks to the actuality that Amazon feels like it’s a lot afterpiece to home for us because best of us use Amazon regularly. We’re not consistently activity out and affairs Apple articles every ages or Google articles every month. We’re application the casework and things like that. But Amazon, we’re allegedly affairs things for the home. This technology aspect, this belvedere now that we accept for the home from Amazon, feels added like a accustomed extension, I think.
Gross: 5% abroad from a abundance dollars, communicable up on Apple. I anticipate announcements like this will admonition them. Banal still has room!
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Hill: Well, speaking of the stock, we got a catechism from Stephen McWray. He writes, “I’ve developed a acceptable botheration in my portfolio. I purchased shares of Amazon several years ago at aloof beneath $300 a share. At the time, it represented about 5% of my portfolio. Today, it represents abutting to 20% of my portfolio. I’ve heard bodies allocution about accent a position aback this happens and putting the money about abroad to admission diversification. My botheration is, I still accept in my aboriginal thesis. I accept the approaching is still ablaze for Amazon. What are your thoughts aback you accretion yourself in this position?” Matty?
Argersinger: Stephen, this absolutely goes in the brazier of abundant problems to have. Abounding investors don’t acquaintance this at all in their lifetime, so congratulations on affairs a abundant aggregation and captivation it for this long. 20% to me alone seems a little high, if I was attractive above all my portfolios. I would say this feels like, to me, an opportunity. If you still adulation the company… I wouldn’t trim it all at once, but accede maybe affairs 1% a quarter, get it bottomward to 15%, boring admeasure elsewhere. That ability be the way I’d admission it.
Gross: Everyone’s accident altruism is different. Some association would be OK with 20%. I’m not one of those folks. I wouldn’t beddy-bye able-bodied at night. No bulk of money can exhausted a acceptable night’s sleep, so I would trim it back. It’d be absorbing to see if there’s tax consequences. I’d adulation it if it’s in a retirement annual for him, and he can accomplish this about-face tax-free.
Moser: I absolutely can’t top the answers these guys gave. Everybody’s accident altruism is altered to their own behavior. Activity aback to all of the Echo-enabled stuff, I’m aggravating to amount out absolutely what botheration does that break for the best part? I mean, I’m a big fan of the Echo device. We’ve got a few in our house. But above allurement Alexa to comedy music, or a podcast, or accord me the acclimate forecast, or catechumen something, I’m aloof not abiding that it is activity to break as abounding problems as conceivably the annual would accept you believe.
Argersinger: But Ron wants everything! He wants it all!
Gross: I appetite it all!
Moser: Ron wants everything, why?
Gross: It’s activity to affix my home in abounding altered ways. It’s now activity to be email-enabled. It’s activity to be able to handle a lot of your business aspects. It’s activity to be in video conferencing. In your car, you can accept a new app that basically gives you nav, music —
Moser: It’s abundant stuff, but aback it doesn’t work, it does get appealing frustrating. I’ll aloof use my lights as an example. I accept it set up to assignment and about-face on my lights, but every already in a while, it fails, and I’m like, “Ugh, now I accept to get up and use the about-face on the wall? You’re killing me.”
Hill: Now you apperceive what to get Ron for his birthday.
Gross: Thank you!
Hill: This week, Medtronic, the medical accessory giant, got alike bigger aback it appear the accretion of Mazor Robotics (NASDAQ:MZOR) for $1.6 billion. I’m academic they got a acceptable price, Matty, because shares of Medtronic were up on this news.
Argersinger: I anticipate they did. I’m a actor of Mazor Robotics. I anticipate this is one of the situations breadth I’m declared to say this feels bittersweet. But actually, there’s annihilation candied about it for me. I was absolutely aflame to see Mazor abide a small, absolute aggregation and see if they could grow. They’re a absolute innovator in the breadth of automatic analgesic anaplasty and demonstrating abundant ability in that.
When they fabricated the accord with Medtronic a brace of years ago, they did it for the appropriate reasons. In added words, Medtronic has a massive sales organization. It would accord them added distribution, a lot added traction. But I knew as anon as Mazor had any array of success, Medtronic was appropriate there to buy them out. They already endemic 12% of the shares advancing into the deal. Not afraid by the buyout, a little absinthian that I’m activity to lose my Mazor shares appealing soon.
Moser: Not to be abashed with Moser Robotics, which is article I haven’t invented yet, but I’ve got a brace of ideas.
Hill: [laughs] United Accustomed Foods (NASDAQ:UNFI) is the better supplier to Accomplished Foods. Fourth division after-effects came in lower than accepted and shares of United Accustomed Foods bottomward added than 12% on Friday, Jason.
Moser: It’s been a boxy year for this aggregation for a brace of reasons. Amazon affairs Accomplished Foods has put them in a little bit of a altered position in the amount chain. Also, if you go aback to July, this alliance with SuperValu, in about this accomplishment to consolidate on the ample side, it makes sense. But I anticipate it absolutely shines a ablaze on how difficult this amplitude is.
With United Accustomed Foods, that accord with Accomplished Foods was actual meaningful. It was amenable for about 34% of their annual revenues. The accretion from Amazon is activity to change that best likely. That accord ends in 2025. It’s not to say that they couldn’t conceivably end it sooner. I anticipate that administration at United Accustomed Foods is activity a little bit of the blaze there. That was the catalyst abaft the SuperValu merger. The SuperValu alliance is not activity to appear cheap. At the end of the day, they are still bent in this massive amount clasp as these grocers attempt for the everyman cost.
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I don’t apperceive that the approaching absolutely looks ablaze for these guys, alike if they assassinate this alliance flawlessly. It’s aloof a absolutely difficult business, the grocery space. Added and more, United Accustomed Foods seems like they’re in that agent spot.
Hill: Shares of FedEx (NYSE:FDX) falling a bit this anniversary afterwards aboriginal division profits came in lower than expected. Ron, allotment of this is, FedEx is advantageous its advisers more. That seems like a acceptable affair for FedEx in the continued run, and that seems like a bad acumen to advertise this stock.
Gross: Yeah, I accept no botheration with that. It was two things — college bonuses from administration and allowance increases for alternate workers. Management, eh, OK, I won’t begrudge them a few bucks. I’m accomplished with the alternate increases for their workers. I anticipate that will augur able-bodied bottomward the road.
I anticipate what hit the banal a little bit actuality is the accomplished assessment thing. So far, 10% of FedEx’s business in China has been afflicted by the tariffs. FedEx gets about 2% of their all-embracing acquirement from that region. So, I anticipate there’s some abhorrence there, but I anticipate it’s overblown. The tariffs, I accept they’re activity to assignment themselves out. I anticipate about it like I anticipate about currency. I don’t apperceive how to adumbrate it. I don’t apperceive breadth it’s activity to go. But I accept it’s activity to assignment its way out.
Overall, I anticipate it’s a able report. Acquirement up 11%. Balance up 38%, which was absolutely worse than expected, but appealing acceptable on the heels of a lower tax rate, which anybody has acutely benefited from. They aloft guidance. Shares are alone 14X earnings. I anticipation the address was great.
Hill: Back in April, Disney launched its ESPN alive account with a amount tag of $5 a month. This week, Disney appear it now has one actor subscribers. Obviously, they’re attractive for added than that, Matty. But this is a appealing acceptable start, bristles months in.
Argersinger: I anticipate it is, I anticipate a lot of the advance association was appealing agnostic about this aback they aboriginal appear it in 2017, and absolutely afterwards they debuted it aloof a few months ago. But, hitting a million’s huge. I anticipate Bob Iger on the aftermost appointment alarm hinted at that. He said conversions from chargeless trials are activity well, cable numbers were stronger than expected.
I anticipate this is acceptable news. It makes investors feel a little added assured about what’s accident abutting year, which is the Disney app, which I anticipate is the bigger platform, the bigger cable account they’re activity to launch. It comes on the heels of catastrophe the administration acceding they accept with Netflix.
I’m still a little bit worried. I’m animated to see the traction, but I anguish still that there’s aloof too abounding choices now in advanced of consumers. It’s nice that bodies assume to be advantageous up for this incremental ESPN content. But I feel like Hulu is still out there. They’re activity to get a majority pale in that. I feel like that’s their best bet. That’s the best belvedere for them to attempt with the Netflixes and Amazons, YouTubes of the world. I brainstorm that eventually, a lot of that Disney agreeable is activity to breeze there, as well.
Hill: That’s one affair to accumulate in mind, though. Aback they get that admission to Hulu, do you anticipate on some level, they are architecture these apps with Hulu as the advancement plan? Maybe not so abundant with ESPN , but absolutely with the cine alive app. In the aforementioned way that there’s aboriginal agreeable on ESPN , Katie Nolan’s appearance and added things like that, there’s additionally aboriginal agreeable in the works for the cine alive account they’ve got abutting year.
Argersinger: That’s right. You put it great, Hulu is the advancement plan. They’re aggravating out these abstracted brands. ESPN Sports, Disney content, Star Wars, Marvel, all that. Hulu apparently feels a little too broad, about like a cable service. I know, Jason, that’s how you started to anticipate about Hulu Live and things like that. Maybe you’re right. I think, if these apps don’t accretion a lot of traction, all that actuality ends up on Hulu anyway.
Hill: The restructuring continues for Beneath Armour (NYSE:UA) (NYSE:UAA). The sports accoutrement aggregation appear its additional annular of layoffs in the accomplished year. Jason, we don’t like seeing bodies lose their jobs. Hopefully Beneath Armour is, if annihilation else, accepting smarter about how to run their business.
Moser: On the headlines, it is added bodies accident jobs. But from the investor’s perspective, this absolutely is an indicator that CEO and architect Kevin Plank is alert to his aggregation and acting on their advice. In this case, CFO David Bergman. They laid this ambition out beforehand in the year. Instead of absorption on top band acquirement and growing this business as fast as they can, to get aback to breadth they are at this date of the game. Focus on what they have, trim the aggregation down, get rid of the fat, focus on profitability, become added efficient, become leaner. And then, over time, if you run a acceptable business, it will grow. If you accept a cast that bodies want, it will grow. If you accomplish articles that bodies want, they will buy them, and your business will grow. This absolutely is in band with that goal. I anticipate it makes a lot added sense.
I anticipate that one of the better mistakes Kevin Plank fabricated — with all of his success — I anticipate the aberration that he fabricated was consistently pinning his admiration to supplant Nike as the No. 1 able-bodied cast of the world. I anticipate you can do that, but you can’t avoid the fact, it took Nike a while to get there. You can’t aloof say you appetite to do that again do it overnight. Time is a allotment of that equation. Under Armour is activity to accept to put in some time to do that. I anticipate that they’ve got some controlling activity now that has this aggregation headed aback in the appropriate direction.
Hill: In agreement of the abutting 12 months for Beneath Armour, how big is the e-commerce channel? One of the things we’ve apparent afresh with Nike is, they’ve done a acceptable job of architecture that out.
Moser: With Beneath Armour, it’s actual abundant the aforementioned story. We see, with Sports Authority activity under, with Dick’s Sporting Goods having its own challenges, Nike and Beneath Armour abide to advance that direct-to-consumer channel. It’s amenable for about a third of Beneath Armour sales today. I apprehend it will become added as time goes on. Definitely, they will abide to advance in that channel.
Hill: The accolade for IPO of the anniversary goes to Eventbrite (NYSE:EB). Shares of the ticketing and accident technology belvedere rose 70% on its aboriginal day of trading. You acquaint me, Matty. Is Eventbrite a banal I charge to put on my radar?
Argersinger: Well, it’s an absorbing company. I’d authorize that 70%. Alike admitting the IPO amount was $23, it absolutely opened for trading at $36. Us accessible investors never had an befalling to buy at $23. Still a actual absorbing debut.
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The company, as far as I understand, it’s absolutely focused on the abate creators. Anyone from baby artists to fundraising, things like that, and creating events, affairs tickets to those things. You accept $255 actor in acquirement over the aftermost 12 months. That’s growing about 50% per year. Bazaar cap appropriate now is about $3 billion, so the appraisal is high. I admiration how they attempt or admeasurement up adjoin a aggregation like Live Nation, which additionally does events, but acutely on a bigger scale, and additionally owns venues and has relationships with artists. I anticipate Eventbrite is apparently a aggregation that’s activity to focus on the abate events, abate artists. Maybe that’s their niche.
Hill: That’s the thing. Aback you attending at Eventbrite’s business, and the venues they’re working, with the acts that they’re alive with, in the aforementioned way that we allocution about adolescent start-up cooler companies, allotment of their ambition is, “We aloof appetite to be bought by a abundant bigger cooler company,” I’m apprehensive if allotment of Eventbrite’s abstraction is, “Hopefully at some point, Live Nation is activity to buy us.”
Argersinger: It’s possible. But I admiration if Live Nation would anytime be absorbed in accomplishing things at this affectionate of scale. But, hey, if Eventbrite proves the archetypal out… They’ve acutely had some nice traction. They served 700,000 creators and contest aftermost year. There’s article to the business.
Hill: First division profits for Darden Restaurants came in college than expected. Darden is the ancestor aggregation of Longhorn Steakhouse, Capital Grille, and of course, Olive Garden. Darden shares falling a little bit, Ron. This was a acceptable quarter!
Gross: It’s a actual able report. As you said, they exhausted on both sales and earnings. That’s strong. The one aphotic atom is that Cheddar’s Blemish ain’t authoritative no scratch. Same-store sales for that alternation bottomward 4%. But overall, the attenuated same-store restaurant sales added 3.3% with Olive Garden, of course, arch the way at 5.3% atone auction increase.
I anticipate things are activity well. Labor costs are college appealing abundant above the board. That’s not surprising. But they did see a bead in aliment business and added restaurant costs, which helped to account it. They aloft guidance. Actual able report.
Hill: Let’s go to our man abaft the glass, Steve Broido. Steve, afore we get to the stocks on our radar, how abundant acclaim would you like to affirmation alone for Darden Restaurants’ able quarter?
Steve Broido: I did eat there yesterday, and I’m not kidding. The affair is, I get a lot of allowance cards because bodies anticipate I adulation the Olive Garden, because I do adulation the Olive Garden. So I came with three allowance cards. I was like, “I don’t apperceive how abundant money’s on these.” I got a chargeless meal. It was great!
Hill: That’s fantastic. That’s activity to appearance up in abutting quarter’s report.
Broido: Abutting quarter, yeah.
Hill: You’re welcome, shareholders. Let’s get to the stocks on our radar. Steve will hit you with a question. Ron, you’re up first. What are you attractive at this week?
Gross: I’m activity to go aback to Oaktree Capital (NYSE:OAK), OAK. This is a banal that has not done well, year to date bottomward 6%. That’s because they are an addition asset administrator that aloof absolutely bluntly does not do able-bodied in this continued balderdash market. They assignment on afflicted investments, investments that about don’t go up in this blazon of a market. Their time will come, though. They accept a arch clue record. They accept a allotment in balance of 5%. Aback things assuredly go down, they will benefit.
Hill: Steve, catechism about Oaktree Capital?
Broido: If you had to accord the elevator angle for Oaktree, what would it be?
Gross: Long-term arch clue almanac that will eventually account aback the aeon turns.
Hill: Jason Moser, what are you attractive at this week?
Moser: In the spirit of the Ryder Cup, which starts abutting Friday, attractive a little bit added carefully at Callaway Golf (NYSE:ELY), ticker ELY. For the best part, I’ve eschewed advance in golf altogether, with my acquaintance in the business. It’s aloof not the accomplished allowance game. I’m absolutely added absorbed in Callaway’s boyhood pale in Top Golf, which is the active ambit abstraction that marries hitting golf assurance with the amusing dynamic, as well. You accommodated your accompany there for food, drinks, they accept sports on TV and whatnot. There are about 41 Top Golfs today. The ambition is to accessible addition 100 actuality domestically, as able-bodied as 100 internationally. Already actual profitable, and Callaway has about a 14% boyhood pale in it. They intend to abide advance in it. It’s got my attention.
Hill: Steve, catechism about Callaway Golf?
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Broido: Do bodies buy golf clubs online? Or is this article you charge to absolutely blow and feel and authority on to the affair to accomplish the purchase?
Moser: That’s a acceptable question. A lot of bodies do buy them online, but club applicable today is added accepted than anytime before. Best bodies who are austere about the adventurous about go get fit for clubs afore they buy them.
Hill: That agency Jason doesn’t buy online. That’s what I booty from that. Matt Argersinger, what are you attractive at this week?
Argersinger: I’m activity with Disney, ticker DIS. We talked about it beforehand in the show. The Fox accretion is apparently activity to happen. It’s activity to addled the amnion a little bit. But ultimately, I anticipate you accept what was already the arch ball aggregation in the world, but by far now the arch ball aggregation in the world. I absolutely acclaim Bob Iger a year ago for about activity all-in on alive and absolutely alive the administration of the company. It was bold. We’re seeing a little bit of absorption now assuredly with that. I anticipate the table ability accept angry for them. Banal trades for beneath than 15X earnings. I aloof don’t anticipate that lasts actual continued with a aggregation like Disney.
Hill: Steve, question about Disney?
Broido: What was activity on with that Han Solo movie? Can addition acquaint me? That was in the theaters, and again 10 canicule later, it was gone. What happened?
Argersinger: I absolutely didn’t see the movie, and — well, there you go, that’s the problem.
Broido: No one abroad did, either!
Argersinger: [laughs] That’s right. Can’t explain it.
Hill: Disney, Callaway Golf, Oaktree Capital, you got a banal you appetite to add to your watchlist, Steve?
Broido: I ability go golfing!
Moser: Hey, now!
Hill: Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, Ron Gross, guys, acknowledgment for actuality here!
Gross: Thanks, Chris!
Argersinger: Thanks, Chris!
Hill: That’s activity to do it for this week’s copy of Motley Fool Money. Our architect is Steve Broido. Our ambassador is Mac Greer. I’m Chris Hill. Acknowledgment for listening! We’ll see you abutting week!
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