We’ve apprehend and appear on some appreciably apprenticed assay in contempo weeks, including from the country’s arch activity aphorism maker and the government’s favourite activity consultant. But this one aloof about takes the biscuit.
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It is an assay by advance coffer CLSA – partly abreast by Frontier Economics, the consultancy abaft the other notable analyses we appear on aftermost week, actuality and actuality – and argues why rooftop solar and array accumulator will never booty off in Australia and why no one in their appropriate apperception would anytime leave the grid. Or alike install solar modules.
We wouldn’t commonly bother with it, but it got some austere air-time in the AFR, and in added Fairfax media, and may aloof be cited by others.
So it’s account adorable at and pointing out that it is based on some amazing assumptions – not aloof about the bulk of solar and storage, but additionally about the way bodies would use the technology.
Let’s booty its assumptions on activity off-grid for instance. It cites as an archetype an activity hungry, four-bedroom house, the array of customer that would acceptable be the last to accept to go off grid.
No matter. It assumes that such households would appetite to use all of their accessories at the same time (the oven, the microwave, the dishwasher, the abrasion machine, the iron, the kettle, the air-con, the drier, the TV, and every ablaze in the abode as able-bodied as laptops) and would accordingly allegation 19kW of connected ability to accumulation all that.
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This, concludes analyst Baden Moore, would crave 3 Tesla Powerwall 2 batteries or three Redflow ZCells, aloof to administer two hours of that appeal – not to acknowledgment the 3-7 canicule of backup. Just the bulk of affair this peak, he says, would be prohibitive and bulk added than $50,000 for the array accumulator alone.
There are countless problems with this calculation. The aboriginal is that abounding houses artlessly can’t download that bulk of ability anyhow alike from the coal-powered grid. In Victoria, for instance, new households accept a “capacity” absolute of about 10kW.
And again there is article alleged the “diversity factor,” which, as SolarQuip’s Glen Morris – a arch ascendancy on solar and accumulator – explains, agency it is about absurd to ability such aiguille appeal at the aforementioned time.
One apparatus ability go for a few abnormal at best appeal again affluence off. “I’ve got 10kW (of best demand) aloof in my kitchen but I’ve never been able to about-face them on all at the aforementioned time and cruise the 5kW inverter,” says Morris, who lives off grid.
If a domiciliary was activity to accede activity off grid, would they accept to pay added than $50,000 for batteries that would not be bare best of the time, or would they pay $1,000 or beneath for acute controls to ensure that best of these accessories are acclimated in off-peak?
But Moore doesn’t assume to see a botheration here. He argues that the filigree has been congenital and paid for, and that the activity networks should use any agency accessible to balance their costs.
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“The Australian Activity Markets Commission (AEMC), the key regulator of Australian activity markets, highlights the networks will be accustomed to alter the amount of filigree affiliation to ensure the bulk of basic on the arrangement is recovered,” Moore writes.
“On this basis, the bulk of the arrangement will be recovered from all consumers behindhand of their acceptance of array and solar energy.”
Even the networks apperceive how crazy this attitude is. In the address they able with the CSIRO, and in their admonition to the Finkel report, they say that millions of households will be driven, economically, to booty up solar and storage.
And unless the industry gets its act calm and offers them a appropriate and aggressive service, again abounding will accept to leave the grid, abrogation the economics of the industry in a complete mess.
Part of the botheration is what Moore and Frontier Economics are comparing the amount of solar and accumulator to. Instead of the abounding filigree price, Moore and Frontier analyze solar and accumulator to the retail and broad basic of people’s bills. But again they appear up with some amazing estimates of those prices.
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The address suggests, for instance, that the “real” customer amount of electricity in Victoria is aloof 3.39 cents per kWh, which they analyze to the “consumer price” of 5kW solar PV (which they put at 35.96c/kWh – about three time best people’s average) and a 5kW PV additional Tesla Powerwall 2 (36.23 cents per kWh).
Bruce Mountain, of consultancy close CME, is horrified. “Let’s alpha with that 3.39 cents. Delving into the address we acquisition that they rename this the “wholesale additional retail” price. They say that this is the amount to analyze to PV, with or after battery,” he told us in an emailed assessment.
“Why? Because, they say, the AEMC says consumers will be answerable by the networks alike if they don’t use them. How continued do you anticipate the AEMC’s administrator would aftermost in the job if he took to the abutting COAG affair a accommodation to bang households that install solar and maybe additionally a battery, a $650 a year abandonment tax to pay for the gold-plated arrangement they now accept little allegation for?
“But I’m not done with the 3.39c/kWh. We apperceive the boilerplate domiciliary electricity amount in Victoria is about 30c/kWh. Adding the boilerplate arrangement allegation of about 8 cents per kWh and again adding metering and ecology charges, leaves a allegation for retail additional broad in Victoria of about 15c/kWh.
“The AEMC’s 2015/16 Residential amount trends address says broad additional retail in Victoria is 12c/kWh. Lets not artifice amid 15 and 12. They both make a apology of CLSA’s 3.39. ”
Mountain, it should be remembered, has estimated that the aggregate of solar and accumulator is now one division cheaper than the best grid-only retail action in South Australia. CLSA and Frontier advance that solar and accumulator is bifold the price. He has some new thoughts about retail margins and the appulse of atramentous closures here.
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Frontier alike produced this appraisal for CLSA, suggesting that the cutting majority of Australian households would accretion no banking advantage from rooftop solar panels. And none at all with storage.
The address goes further, claiming that there is a “limit” to how abundant renewables can be congenital into a grid. It says 35-40 per cent, alveolate a affirmation fabricated by Frontier Economics and others.
The CLSA address alike highlight an assay on South Australia’s contempo blackout by Russell Skelton, a above arch of the two better atramentous generators in NSW. Needless to say, Skelton says the aerial akin of wind activity was at accountability for the blackout and will account agnate problems elsewhere.
This is in absolute adverse to the AEMO report, which said that the attributes of wind activity had annihilation to do with the outage, and of the Finkel review, which acicular out there are affluence of technology alternatives to atramentous and gas to ensure filigree aegis and believability as renewables grow.
It additionally contradicts the CSIRO and the arrangement owners, who see no botheration accumulation added than 90 per cent wind and solar over time, and added than 80 per cent in South Australia in the aforementioned time anatomy that added states are aiming for 50 per cent.
CLSA’s arch point out of all this is to altercate that the bounden utilities are in the box bench back it comes to (slowly) brief the activity arrangement from atramentous to green.
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It is accurate that these utilities, and the networks, apply astronomic access at political and authoritative akin on policies. But artlessly adulatory abroad the bulk competitiveness of new technologies is no action to assure the incumbents, or the consumer.
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